The Post That Ended an Era
I was old enough to remember the fall of the Soviet Union. At the time, I didn’t really understand the significance of it, but the older I got, the more I’ve been thinking about how it shaped my life and my perception of the world. How an entire global order can shift in what feels like a moment, even though the structural cracks had been forming for decades.
Today marks another such moment. Not a wall falling. Not a flag being lowered. A social media post.
“Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe. We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are. Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated. In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”
Donald J. Trump, March 14, 2026
If you kept reading it over and over, you weren’t the only one. I’m fairly confident this one will go in the history books as the very moment when American hegemony broke. Not with a military defeat but, ironically, a social media post.
Yes, the US still has the largest navy. The dollar still dominates trade. The economy is still enormous. But hegemony was never about size, it was about the guarantee and the guarantee just asked China for help.
There are so many things to pick apart I barely know where to start. The contradictions, the tone, the simultaneous claim of total victory and admission of continued threat. But one thing strikes harder than everything else: the call for help. Among those called upon, no other than China itself.
And indeed, because of Trump’s erratic posts about everything and nothing, back and forth, it wouldn’t surprise me if this one just goes unnoticed. I’m sure however that this very moment will be marked as the turning point of when the United States effectively hands over global responsibility. A remarkable moment.
The Energy That Won’t Obey
This is where I think my lens through which I look at the world truly shines, because reading the media right now just makes one even more confused.
I look at everything as flows. Think of all human networks, contacts, logistics, transactions, as really just energy in some form flowing between nodes. And this is not hypothetical or something I label on top of other explanations. I see it as the fundamental pattern of the universe. The things you hear about, politics, events, wars, are manifestations of those movements as we humans interpret them.
So let me show you how I see this.
First, the physical reality. Hormuz carries 20% of the world’s oil and LNG. In previous eras, like during the 1970s oil crisis, America was so relatively superior to anyone else that it could use its navy to make sure the strait stayed open. But look at how the math has inverted. Iran is now able to use cheap drones for a fraction of the price to disrupt the entire global market. In other words, Iran has shown the world that the US can no longer control every chokepoint at acceptable cost. Which is why the post I showed you is so remarkable. Iran didn’t even have to say it themselves. Trump just admitted it.
Secondly, the US has spent and is still spending enormous amounts of money on munitions, an estimated $5.6 billion just during the first two days. Yet the US still doesn’t control the strait.
To understand the significance of this, we need to look at the larger picture. Since 1945, the US has been the world’s guarantor of security for so many countries. Europe, the Gulf states, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. This very moment shows that the relative power between America now and what it used to be has declined to a level where even a mid-sized country like Iran can fully contest it. And the pinnacle of it all is that the strait itself is vital to the very allies America has vowed to protect.
The Loops That Are Closing
There is this loop of flows between Israel, the US, and the Gulf states that has kept reinforcing itself. But here is where it gets really interesting.
The US just agreed to lift the Russian oil embargo because of oil market pressure. At the same time, Ukraine is helping out with their drone tech in the Gulf region. If you look at it as flows instead of politics, you can see how the whole Russia/Ukraine situation starts connecting into the first loop. The energy has started to circulate:
US bombs Iran → Iran closes Hormuz → US lifts Russia sanctions → Russia funds Ukraine war → Ukraine helps Gulf states fight Iran → Iran targets Ukraine’s allies.
And with even more time, actors like China could get drawn in as well, which was interestingly enough the first country Trump urged should help in the region.
It’s even more remarkable when you consider the fact that China just got some of their ships through because Tehran allowed them to do so. And they weren’t alone. Both Turkey and India managed to get the same clearance from the Iranians. What this shows is that the US is de facto no longer the main node in the system. Iran is deciding who passes and who doesn’t. The gatekeeper changed.
So what I’m seeing is the entire geometry of the world reshaping. And the narratives that news stations pump out, and the so-called experts, they don’t really matter unless they talk about very specific points that are physical and verifiable.
The Fractures Within
There are two more parameters to keep in mind.
First, the US domestically. David Sacks, the White House crypto and AI tsar, just publicly urged America to withdraw as quickly as possible. I can only assume that he is starting to see how the momentum is building. At the same time, the US is sending 2,500 more Marines to the region. And let’s look back at the contradictions in the post: the US claims it has destroyed 100% of Iran’s capabilities. Yet, and Trump says it himself, they can “still launch a drone or two or some missiles.”
The administration is trying to escalate and exit simultaneously.
That’s geometrically impossible.
Second, and perhaps even more fascinating: the munitions. Estimates suggest Iran can produce around a hundred ballistic missiles per month. The US can produce the same category of defense interceptors, called THAAD, at a rate of 96 per year. Look at that difference again. Per month versus per year. And bear in mind we haven’t even started talking about China.
Every THAAD fired in the Gulf is a THAAD not available for Taiwan. Every Tomahawk launched at Iran is a Tomahawk not deterring China. The same president who just asked China to send ships to Hormuz is simultaneously depleting the weapons stockpile that deters China in the Pacific. Beijing doesn’t need intelligence satellites to know this. They just need to read the post.
The Sound of a Structure Breaking
Every part I just mentioned feeds into each other. Russia, now with the lifted embargo, benefits tremendously from the chaos. The more ships China gets through the strait on bilateral terms with Iran, the more it benefits as well. I suspect China and Russia will finally build a direct land link for oil and gas to make sure this kind of disruption never threatens them again, which brings them even closer together. Meanwhile, Gulf states are recalculating their allegiance to the West, and Israel is making itself even more isolated.
And it seems like Trump is aware of it, hence the more-than-usual erratic post. But the flows keep pulling him in. The momentum is stronger than he anticipated. “Let’s bomb the hell out of the shoreline” says it all. Sheer desperation.
I remember watching the Soviet Union fall and not understanding what I was seeing. I think most people reading that post today don’t fully understand what they’re seeing either. But the structure is the same. An overextended superpower, depleted by military adventures it can’t afford, watching its client states recalculate their alignments in real time, while the system it built reorganizes around it rather than through it.
The Soviet Union didn’t fall because someone defeated it. It fell because the energy cost of maintaining its position exceeded the energy the system could provide. The geometry became unsustainable, and one day, the structure that looked permanent simply wasn’t there anymore.
“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others will send Ships.”
That’s not a call to action. That’s the sound of a structure discovering it isn’t there anymore.